Wednesday, 26 June 2013

More on The Black Swan

Chapter 13 (9 of 12 1:01:20 - audiobook) Taleb talks about stochastic tinkering . Sounds like more about the benefits of failure. 
Chapter 14
(10(10 of 12 4:50 - audiobook) mentions power laws
(10 of 12 9:15 - audiobook) mentions memes
(10 of 12 17:30 - audiobook) mentions the long tail . As long as there's life there's hope. 
(10 of 12 34:15 - audiobook) 'Those at the top of the pecking order live longer', It makes me think that, if we live in a society governed by social capital and wisdom of the crowds people could be 'winners' often enough to make them live longer.

And the long tail, can be an allegory for the persistence of the record of past failures. This means that maybe we can be more assured that if we discover something important, we will recognise it as such. Even if it seems meaningless at the time of discovery, and even if it takes a while.
Chapter 15
(10 of 12 50:50 - audiobook) mentions the 80/20 rule
(11 of 12 1:03:30 - audiobook) Taleb talks about the way in which several popular science books, summarise the research of complex systems. They talk about, and make cross-references to phenomena such as power laws and self organising systems with the nature and social groups. There is even a mention of information cascades. 
He disagrees with all three authors' tendency to promote accuracy, he thinks that makes us blind to the unexpected and the unknowable.
Taleb warns against viewing models as confirmation of reality. 

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