Hedgehogs vs Foxes, if a hedgehog ( a type of person) is likely to be surrounding itself around a single black swan (worry about one rare event in particular) than maybe by linking the hedgehog community, a group which contains, and may access all that knowledge put together can form.
That group has the potential to solve very complex problems because it has so much knowledge and the theories in the wisdom of crowd suggests that together it may also sort out the irrelevant data.
It may be able to do so as James Surowiecki suggests in 'The Wisdom of Crowds' (Chapter 1 Page 10-11):
'Each person's guess, you might say, has two components: information and error. Subtract the error, and you're left with the information.'
This suggests that together it can also sort out the irrelevant data.
It is important to note Surowiecki's reservation that 'even with the errors canceled out, it's possible that a group's judgment will be bad. For the group to be smart, there has to be at least some information in the "information" part of the "information minus error" equation. (If you'd asked a large group of children to buy and sell stocks in the wake of the Challenger disaster, it's unlikely they would have picked out Thiokol as the culprit.)
This suggests that together it can also sort out the irrelevant data.
It is important to note Surowiecki's reservation that 'even with the errors canceled out, it's possible that a group's judgment will be bad. For the group to be smart, there has to be at least some information in the "information" part of the "information minus error" equation. (If you'd asked a large group of children to buy and sell stocks in the wake of the Challenger disaster, it's unlikely they would have picked out Thiokol as the culprit.)
No comments:
Post a Comment